Don’t Predict Oil Prices, Prepare For Them

Oil prices are hard to predict. Instead of forecasting them, supply chain leaders should define policies that enable faster responses to fuel price volatility.

Mar 09, 2026

When you’ve been an industry analyst for 27 years, not much really surprises you anymore, mostly because history has a habit of repeating itself. Or at least rhyming, as Mark Twain supposedly said.

“Oil Hits New Record; Is $200 a Barrel Coming?” ABC News reported in May 2008. A few months later, the global financial crisis hit and oil prices crashed to below $50 per barrel.

“Sky is the limit: Analysts warn oil prices could surge further” is the CNBC headline this morning. How high can oil prices go in the days and weeks ahead? The honest answer is that nobody knows. It’s also possible that prices could come back down quickly.

Remember all the “peak oil” predictions for both oil supply and demand? People are still making them, and they keep changing. See, for example, “Peak Oil Supply Is Back! (And Just As Wrong)” and “What now for peak oil? Unpacking a surprise twist in the fossil fuel feud.”

Nonetheless, oil prices do impact supply chains. So what are executives to do?

Digital Twins in Supply Chain Operations

PepsiCo announced an industry-first collaboration with Siemens and NVIDIA to apply AI-enabled digital twin technology across manufacturing and supply chain operations. The initiative is focused on simulating, optimizing, and validating production and logistics decisions before making physical or capital changes. Against this backdrop, this survey explored how supply chain and logistics executives are viewing the strategic importance, readiness, and potential value of AI-enabled digital twins within their own organizations.

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